# Communicating Uncertainty in Machine Learning Explanations: A Visualization Analytics Approach for Predictive Process Monitoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.05736 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05736/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Apr 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, Taxonomies, Opportunities and Challenges toward Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10045/) (2019)
- [A Survey Of Methods For Explaining Black Box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01933/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Effect of Confidence and Explanation on Accuracy and Trust Calibration in AI-Assisted Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.02114/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.07586/) (2020)
- [Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05030/) (2020)
- [Visual Analytics for Explainable Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.02527/) (2018)
- [Explaining Hyperparameter Optimization via Partial Dependence Plots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.04820/) (2021)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Process Mining: A General Overview and Application of a Novel Local Explanation Approach for Predictive Process Monitoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02098/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Interpretable and Explainable Machine Learning Methods for Predictive Process Monitoring: A Systematic Literature Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17584/) (2023)
- [Concerning Uncertainty -- A Systematic Survey of Uncertainty-Aware XAI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.26838/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

As data-driven intelligent systems advance, the need for reliable and transparent decision-making mechanisms has become increasingly important. Therefore, it is essential to integrate uncertainty quantification and model explainability approaches to foster trustworthy business and operational process analytics. This study explores how model uncertainty can be effectively communicated in global and local post-hoc explanation approaches, such as Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) and Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots. In addition, this study examines appropriate visualization analytics approaches to facilitate such methodological integration. By combining these two research directions, decision-makers can not only justify the plausibility of explanation-driven actionable insights but also validate their reliability. Finally, the study includes expert interviews to assess the suitability of the proposed approach and designed interface for a real-world predictive process monitoring problem in the manufacturing domain.