# Privacy-preserving and Uncertainty-aware Federated Trajectory Prediction for Connected Autonomous Vehicles

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.04340 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04340/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Mar 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Advances and Open Problems in Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04977/) (2019)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [ChauffeurNet: Learning to Drive by Imitating the Best and Synthesizing the Worst](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03079/) (2018)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06771/) (2018)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [Client Selection in Federated Learning: Convergence Analysis and Power-of-Choice Selection Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01243/) (2020)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.05819/) (2018)
- [On Adversarial Robustness of Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.05057/) (2022)
- [PiP: Planning-informed Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11476/) (2020)
- [GRIP++: Enhanced Graph-based Interaction-aware Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07792/) (2019)
- [Probabilistic 3D Multi-Modal, Multi-Object Tracking for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.13755/) (2020)
- [Active Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12641/) (2019)
- [Uncertainty Quantification of Collaborative Detection for Self-Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.08162/) (2022)
- [Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywhere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03909/) (2021)
- [SCALE-Net: Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Network under Random Number of Interacting Vehicles via Edge-enhanced Graph Convolutional Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.12609/) (2020)
- [Collaborative Uncertainty in Multi-Agent Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.13947/) (2021)
- [Flow-FL: Data-Driven Federated Learning for Spatio-Temporal Predictions in Multi-Robot Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08595/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Efficient Federated Learning against Heterogeneous and Non-stationary Client Unavailability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17446/) (2024)
- [Building Real-time Awareness of Out-of-distribution in Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17277/) (2024)
- [On the Convergence Rates of Federated Q-Learning across Heterogeneous Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.03897/) (2024)
- [Fast and Robust State Estimation and Tracking via Hierarchical Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17267/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning is the method of choice for trajectory prediction for autonomous vehicles. Unfortunately, its data-hungry nature implicitly requires the availability of sufficiently rich and high-quality centralized datasets, which easily leads to privacy leakage. Besides, uncertainty-awareness becomes increasingly important for safety-crucial cyber physical systems whose prediction module heavily relies on machine learning tools. In this paper, we relax the data collection requirement and enhance uncertainty-awareness by using Federated Learning on Connected Autonomous Vehicles with an uncertainty-aware global objective. We name our algorithm as FLTP. We further introduce ALFLTP which boosts FLTP via using active learning techniques in adaptatively selecting participating clients. We consider both negative log-likelihood (NLL) and aleatoric uncertainty (AU) as client selection metrics. Experiments on Argoverse dataset show that FLTP significantly outperforms the model trained on local data. In addition, ALFLTP-AU converges faster in training regression loss and performs better in terms of NLL, minADE and MR than FLTP in most rounds, and has more stable round-wise performance than ALFLTP-NLL.