# Transitions between quasi-stationary states in traffic systems: Cologne orbital motorways as an example

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14596 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.14596/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 69 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Feb 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [PageRank beyond the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1407.5107/) (2014)
- [Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct world trade network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1501.03371/) (2015)
- [Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.01820/) (2019)
- [Identifying subdominant collective effects in a large motorway network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07644/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Traffic systems can operate in different modes. In a previous work, we identified these modes as different quasi-stationary states in the correlation structure. Here, we analyze the transitions between such quasi-stationary states, i.e., how the system changes its operational mode. In the longer run this might be helpful to forecast the time evolution of correlation patterns in traffic. We take Cologne orbital motorways as an example, we construct a state transition network for each quarter of 2015 and find a seasonal dependence for those quasi-stationary states in the traffic system. Using the PageRank algorithm, we identify and explore the dominant states which occur frequently within a moving time window of 60 days in 2015. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this type for traffic systems.