# Scenarios and branch points to future machine intelligence

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14478 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.14478/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 0 of its 11 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Feb 2023.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Thermodynamic Limits of Physical Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05463/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We discuss scenarios and branch points to four major possible consequences regarding future machine intelligence; 1) the singleton scenario where the first and only super-intelligence acquires a decisive strategic advantage, 2) the multipolar scenario where the singleton scenario is not technically denied but political or other factors in human society or multi-agent interactions between the intelligent agents prevent a single agent from gaining a decisive strategic advantage, 3) the ecosystem scenario where the singleton scenario is denied and many autonomous intelligent agents operate in such a way that they are interdependent and virtually unstoppable, and 4) the upper-bound scenario where cognitive capabilities that can be achieved by human-designed intelligent agents or their descendants are inherently limited to the sub-human level. We identify six major constraints that can form branch points to these scenarios; (1) constraints on autonomy, (2) constraints on the ability to improve self-structure, (3) constraints related to thermodynamic efficiency, (4) constraints on updating physical infrastructure, (5) constraints on relative advantage, and (6) constraints on locality.