# Online Black-Box Confidence Estimation of Deep Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.13578 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13578/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Feb 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.06083/) (2017)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Adversarial examples in the physical world](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.02533/) (2016)
- [AugMix: A Simple Data Processing Method to Improve Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02781/) (2019)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Patch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09665/) (2017)
- [A Survey of Autonomous Driving: Common Practices and Emerging Technologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05113/) (2019)
- [Benchmarking Robustness in Object Detection: Autonomous Driving when Winter is Coming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07484/) (2019)
- [Deep k-Nearest Neighbors: Towards Confident, Interpretable and Robust Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.04765/) (2018)
- [Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07186/) (2020)
- [Physical Adversarial Examples for Object Detectors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.07769/) (2018)
- [Evading Adversarial Example Detection Defenses with Orthogonal Projected Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15023/) (2021)
- [Rogue Signs: Deceiving Traffic Sign Recognition with Malicious Ads and Logos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.02780/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) increasingly utilize deep neural networks (DNNs) for improved perception or planning. Nevertheless, DNNs are quite brittle when the data distribution during inference deviates from the data distribution during training. This represents a challenge when deploying in partly unknown environments like in the case of ADAS. At the same time, the standard confidence of DNNs remains high even if the classification reliability decreases. This is problematic since following motion control algorithms consider the apparently confident prediction as reliable even though it might be considerably wrong. To reduce this problem real-time capable confidence estimation is required that better aligns with the actual reliability of the DNN classification. Additionally, the need exists for black-box confidence estimation to enable the homogeneous inclusion of externally developed components to an entire system. In this work we explore this use case and introduce the neighborhood confidence (NHC) which estimates the confidence of an arbitrary DNN for classification. The metric can be used for black-box systems since only the top-1 class output is required and does not need access to the gradients, the training dataset or a hold-out validation dataset. Evaluation on different data distributions, including small in-domain distribution shifts, out-of-domain data or adversarial attacks, shows that the NHC performs better or on par with a comparable method for online white-box confidence estimation in low data regimes which is required for real-time capable AD/ADAS.