# Using uncertainty-aware machine learning models to study aerosol-cloud interactions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.11921 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11921/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Nov 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Ray: A Distributed Framework for Emerging AI Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.05889/) (2017)
- [Tune: A Research Platform for Distributed Model Selection and Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.05118/) (2018)
- [Identifying Causal-Effect Inference Failure with Uncertainty-Aware Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00163/) (2020)
- [Quantifying Ignorance in Individual-Level Causal-Effect Estimates under Hidden Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04850/) (2021)
- [Scalable Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Causal-Effect Estimates of Continuous-Valued Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.10022/) (2022)
- [Causal Inference with Treatment Measurement Error: A Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09186/) (2022)
- [Using Non-Linear Causal Models to Study Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the Southeast Pacific](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.15084/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) include various effects that result from aerosols entering a cloud, and affecting cloud properties. In general, an increase in aerosol concentration results in smaller droplet sizes which leads to larger, brighter, longer-lasting clouds that reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. The strength of the effect is however heterogeneous, meaning it depends on the surrounding environment, making ACI one of the most uncertain effects in our current climate models. In our work, we use causal machine learning to estimate ACI from satellite observations by reframing the problem as a treatment (aerosol) and outcome (change in droplet radius). We predict the causal effect of aerosol on clouds with uncertainty bounds depending on the unknown factors that may be influencing the impact of aerosol. Of the three climate models evaluated, we find that only one plausibly recreates the trend, lending more credence to its estimate cooling due to ACI.