# Design-based individual prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.09117 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.09117/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 10 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jan 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Design-unbiased statistical learning in survey sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11423/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A design-based individual prediction approach is developed based on the expected cross-validation results, given the sampling design and the sample-splitting design for cross-validation. Whether the predictor is selected from an ensemble of models or a weighted average of them, valid inference of the unobserved prediction errors is defined and obtained with respect to the sampling design, while outcomes and features are treated as constants.