# Uncertainty Estimation based on Geometric Separation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.04452 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04452/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Jan 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [When Does Label Smoothing Help?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02629/) (2019)
- [Universal adversarial perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.08401/) (2016)
- [Reluplex: An Efficient SMT Solver for Verifying Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.01135/) (2017)
- [Loss Surfaces, Mode Connectivity, and Fast Ensembling of DNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10026/) (2018)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Using Self-Supervised Learning Can Improve Model Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.12340/) (2019)
- [Using Pre-Training Can Improve Model Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09960/) (2019)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [Verified Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.10155/) (2019)
- [On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11001/) (2019)
- [Safety Verification of Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.06940/) (2016)
- [Formal Verification of Piece-Wise Linear Feed-Forward Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.01320/) (2017)
- [Concrete Dropout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07832/) (2017)
- [Pitfalls of In-Domain Uncertainty Estimation and Ensembling in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06470/) (2020)
- [Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07329/) (2020)
- [Improving model calibration with accuracy versus uncertainty optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07923/) (2020)
- [Multivariate Confidence Calibration for Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13546/) (2020)
- [Local Temperature Scaling for Probability Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05105/) (2020)
- [Verifying Properties of Binarized Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.06662/) (2017)
- [Non-Parametric Calibration for Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04933/) (2019)
- [Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12182/) (2021)
- [Distribution-free calibration guarantees for histogram binning without sample splitting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04656/) (2021)
- [Combining Human Predictions with Model Probabilities via Confusion Matrices and Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.14591/) (2021)
- [Beyond calibration: estimating the grouping loss of modern neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.16315/) (2022)
- [Distance-Based Learning from Errors for Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01730/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical applications such as autonomous driving. In this work, we put forward a novel geometric-based approach for improving uncertainty estimations in machine learning models. Our approach involves using the geometric distance of the current input from existing training inputs as a signal for estimating uncertainty, and then calibrating this signal using standard post-hoc techniques. We demonstrate that our method leads to more accurate uncertainty estimations than recently proposed approaches through extensive evaluation on a variety of datasets and models. Additionally, we optimize our approach so that it can be implemented on large datasets in near real-time applications, making it suitable for time-sensitive scenarios.