# An Exploratory Study of AI System Risk Assessment from the Lens of Data Distribution and Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.06828 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06828/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 67 of its 98 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Dec 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 67)

- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [wav2vec 2.0: A Framework for Self-Supervised Learning of Speech Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11477/) (2020)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [YOLOv3: An Incremental Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.02767/) (2018)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Common Voice: A Massively-Multilingual Speech Corpus](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.06670/) (2019)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Objects as Points](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.07850/) (2019)
- [YOLOX: Exceeding YOLO Series in 2021](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.08430/) (2021)
- [End to End Learning for Self-Driving Cars](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.07316/) (2016)
- [CosFace: Large Margin Cosine Loss for Deep Face Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.09414/) (2018)
- [Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04606/) (2018)
- [Simple Online and Realtime Tracking with a Deep Association Metric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07402/) (2017)
- [Simple Online and Realtime Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.00763/) (2016)
- [ByteTrack: Multi-Object Tracking by Associating Every Detection Box](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06864/) (2021)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [MOT16: A Benchmark for Multi-Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.00831/) (2016)
- [Deep Speech 2: End-to-End Speech Recognition in English and Mandarin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.02595/) (2015)
- [Generalized ODIN: Detecting Out-of-distribution Image without Learning from Out-of-distribution Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11297/) (2020)
- [Training Confidence-calibrated Classifiers for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.09325/) (2017)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Look Before You Leap: An Exploratory Study of Uncertainty Measurement for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10236/) (2023)
- [AcTracer: Active Testing of Large Language Model via Multi-Stage Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03573/) (2024)
- [The "I Don't Know" Filter: Enhancing Agentic Reliability in Function Calling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.04034/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning (DL) has become a driving force and has been widely adopted in many domains and applications with competitive performance. In practice, to solve the nontrivial and complicated tasks in real-world applications, DL is often not used standalone, but instead contributes as a piece of gadget of a larger complex AI system. Although there comes a fast increasing trend to study the quality issues of deep neural networks (DNNs) at the model level, few studies have been performed to investigate the quality of DNNs at both the unit level and the potential impacts on the system level. More importantly, it also lacks systematic investigation on how to perform the risk assessment for AI systems from unit level to system level. To bridge this gap, this paper initiates an early exploratory study of AI system risk assessment from both the data distribution and uncertainty angles to address these issues. We propose a general framework with an exploratory study for analyzing AI systems. After large-scale (700+ experimental configurations and 5000+ GPU hours) experiments and in-depth investigations, we reached a few key interesting findings that highlight the practical need and opportunities for more in-depth investigations into AI systems.