# Counterfactuals for the Future

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.03974 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03974/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Dec 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Predict Responsibly: Improving Fairness and Accuracy by Learning to Defer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.06664/) (2017)
- [Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.04383/) (2018)
- [Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06138/) (2020)
- [Counterfactual Off-Policy Evaluation with Gumbel-Max Structural Causal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.05824/) (2019)
- [Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda: Counterfactually-Guided Policy Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.06272/) (2018)
- [A Moral Framework for Understanding of Fair ML through Economic Models of Equality of Opportunity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.03400/) (2018)
- [Learning Optimal Fair Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02244/) (2018)
- [Fairness Behind a Veil of Ignorance: A Welfare Analysis for Automated Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.04959/) (2018)
- [The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.00699/) (2016)
- [Fair Classification and Social Welfare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00147/) (2019)
- [Downstream Effects of Affirmative Action](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.09004/) (2018)
- [Disaggregated Interventions to Reduce Inequality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00593/) (2021)
- [Fairness as Equality of Opportunity: Normative Guidance from Political Philosophy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08259/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [On the Actionability of Outcome Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.04470/) (2023)
- [Time Can Invalidate Algorithmic Recourse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08007/) (2024)
- [Causal Dependence Plots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04209/) (2023)
- [A New Paradigm for Counterfactual Reasoning in Fairness and Recourse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13935/) (2024)
- [FACEGroup: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations for Group Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.22591/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the system being modeled -- an assumption that is reasonable in many settings where counterfactuals are used. In this work, we consider cases where we might reasonably make a different assumption about exogenous variables, namely, that the exogenous noise terms of each unit do exhibit some unit-specific structure and/or stability. This leads us to a different use of counterfactuals -- a 'forward-looking' rather than 'retrospective' counterfactual. We introduce "counterfactual treatment choice," a type of treatment choice problem that motivates using forward-looking counterfactuals. We then explore how mismatches between interventional versus forward-looking counterfactual approaches to treatment choice, consistent with different assumptions about exogenous noise, can lead to counterintuitive results.