# Denoising diffusion probabilistic models for probabilistic energy forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.02977 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.02977/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 9 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Dec 2022.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [Grad-TTS: A Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Text-to-Speech](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06337/) (2021)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Deep Generative Modelling: A Comparative Review of VAEs, GANs, Normalizing Flows, Energy-Based and Autoregressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04922/) (2021)
- [An Introduction to Deep Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.05180/) (2021)
- [A deep generative model for probabilistic energy forecasting in power systems: normalizing flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09370/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18886/) (2024)
- [Medical Image Registration and Its Application in Retinal Images: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16502/) (2024)
- [Deep Generative Methods for Producing Forecast Trajectories in Power Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15137/) (2023)
- [EMFusion: Uncertainty-Aware Conditional Diffusion Model for Multivariate Narrow-band Exposure Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15067/) (2025)
- [Parametric and Generative Forecasts of EPEX Day-Ahead Energy Market Curves](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.20226/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Scenario-based probabilistic forecasts have become vital for decision-makers in handling intermittent renewable energies. This paper presents a recent promising deep learning generative approach called denoising diffusion probabilistic models. It is a class of latent variable models which have recently demonstrated impressive results in the computer vision community. However, to our knowledge, there has yet to be a demonstration that they can generate high-quality samples of load, PV, or wind power time series, crucial elements to face the new challenges in power systems applications. Thus, we propose the first implementation of this model for energy forecasting using the open data of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. The results demonstrate this approach is competitive with other state-of-the-art deep learning generative models, including generative adversarial networks, variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows.