# A Hybrid Statistical-Machine Learning Approach for Analysing Online Customer Behavior: An Empirical Study

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.02255 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.02255/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [European Union regulations on algorithmic decision-making and a "right to explanation"](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08813/) (2016)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current Status and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.00590/) (2019)
- [GluonTS: Probabilistic Time Series Models in Python](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05264/) (2019)
- [Sales Demand Forecast in E-commerce using a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Methodology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04028/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Optimal Stopping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.07211/) (2018)
- [ARMDN: Associative and Recurrent Mixture Density Networks for eRetail Demand Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.03800/) (2018)
- [LSAR: Efficient Leverage Score Sampling Algorithm for the Analysis of Big Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12321/) (2019)
- [Rollage: Efficient Rolling Average Algorithm to Estimate ARMA Models for Big Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09175/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We apply classical statistical methods in conjunction with the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to develop a hybrid interpretable model to analyse 454,897 online customers' behavior for a particular product category at the largest online retailer in China, that is JD. While most mere machine learning methods are plagued by the lack of interpretability in practice, our novel hybrid approach will address this practical issue by generating explainable output. This analysis involves identifying what features and characteristics have the most significant impact on customers' purchase behavior, thereby enabling us to predict future sales with a high level of accuracy, and identify the most impactful variables. Our results reveal that customers' product choice is insensitive to the promised delivery time, but this factor significantly impacts customers' order quantity. We also show that the effectiveness of various discounting methods depends on the specific product and the discount size. We identify product classes for which certain discounting approaches are more effective and provide recommendations on better use of different discounting tools. Customers' choice behavior across different product classes is mostly driven by price, and to a lesser extent, by customer demographics. The former finding asks for exercising care in deciding when and how much discount should be offered, whereas the latter identifies opportunities for personalized ads and targeted marketing. Further, to curb customers' batch ordering behavior and avoid the undesirable Bullwhip effect, JD should improve its logistics to ensure faster delivery of orders.