# A locally time-invariant metric for climate model ensemble predictions of extreme risk

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.16367 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.16367/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
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- First posted on arXiv 26 Nov 2022.

## Abstract (arXiv)

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the context of high-impact extreme events. We introduce a locally time-invariant method for evaluating climate model simulations with a focus on assessing the simulation of extremes. We explore the behaviour of the proposed method in predicting extreme heat days in Nairobi and provide comparative results for eight additional cities.