# Introduction and Exemplars of Uncertainty Decomposition

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.15475 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15475/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Nov 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [Deep Kernel Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.02222/) (2015)
- [Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02757/) (2019)
- [BatchEnsemble: An Alternative Approach to Efficient Ensemble and Lifelong Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06715/) (2020)
- [Predictive inference with the jackknife+](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.02928/) (2019)
- [Approximate Inference Turns Deep Networks into Gaussian Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01930/) (2019)
- [Challenges in Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.06539/) (2019)
- [Accurate Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition in Ensemble Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.04061/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Safe Uncertainty-Aware Learning of Robotic Suturing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16596/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in the machine learning field. Both model trustworthiness and performance require the understanding of uncertainty, especially for models used in high-stake applications where errors can cause cataclysmic consequences, such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. Accordingly, uncertainty decomposition and quantification have attracted more and more attention in recent years. This short report aims to demystify the notion of uncertainty decomposition through an introduction to two types of uncertainty and several decomposition exemplars, including maximum likelihood estimation, Gaussian processes, deep neural network, and ensemble learning. In the end, cross connections to other topics in this seminar and two conclusions are provided.