# Efficient Traffic State Forecasting using Spatio-Temporal Network Dependencies: A Sparse Graph Neural Network Approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.03033 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.03033/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Nov 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis: Finding Sparse, Trainable Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.03635/) (2018)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Spectral Networks and Locally Connected Networks on Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6203/) (2013)
- [Sparsity in Deep Learning: Pruning and growth for efficient inference and training in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.00554/) (2021)
- [Rigging the Lottery: Making All Tickets Winners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11134/) (2019)
- [A Unified Lottery Ticket Hypothesis for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.06790/) (2021)
- [Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.04245/) (2017)
- [ForceNet: A Graph Neural Network for Large-Scale Quantum Calculations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01436/) (2021)
- [Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.02699/) (2017)
- [Accelerating Framework of Transformer by Hardware Design and Model Compression Co-Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.10030/) (2021)
- [A Length Adaptive Algorithm-Hardware Co-design of Transformer on FPGA Through Sparse Attention and Dynamic Pipelining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.03646/) (2022)
- [Sparse Progressive Distillation: Resolving Overfitting under Pretrain-and-Finetune Paradigm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.08190/) (2021)
- [Towards Sparsification of Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.04766/) (2022)
- [An Automatic and Efficient BERT Pruning for Edge AI Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.10461/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Traffic state prediction in a transportation network is paramount for effective traffic operations and management, as well as informed user and system-level decision-making. However, long-term traffic prediction (beyond 30 minutes into the future) remains challenging in current research. In this work, we integrate the spatio-temporal dependencies in the transportation network from network modeling, together with the graph convolutional network (GCN) and graph attention network (GAT). To further tackle the dramatic computation and memory cost caused by the giant model size (i.e., number of weights) caused by multiple cascaded layers, we propose sparse training to mitigate the training cost, while preserving the prediction accuracy. It is a process of training using a fixed number of nonzero weights in each layer in each iteration. We consider the problem of long-term traffic speed forecasting for a real large-scale transportation network data from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Experimental results show that the proposed GCN-STGT and GAT-STGT models achieve low prediction errors on short-, mid- and long-term prediction horizons, of 15, 30 and 45 minutes in duration, respectively. Using our sparse training, we could train from scratch with high sparsity (e.g., up to 90%), equivalent to 10 times floating point operations per second (FLOPs) reduction on computational cost using the same epochs as dense training, and arrive at a model with very small accuracy loss compared with the original dense training