# Deep Learning-Derived Optimal Aviation Strategies to Control Pandemics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.10888 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.10888/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 41 of its 69 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Oct 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 41)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.01852/) (2015)
- [Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3555/) (2014)
- [Graph Neural Networks: A Review of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.08434/) (2018)
- [Instance Normalization: The Missing Ingredient for Fast Stylization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.08022/) (2016)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Deeper Insights into Graph Convolutional Networks for Semi-Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07606/) (2018)
- [An overview of gradient descent optimization algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.04747/) (2016)
- [Representation Learning on Graphs with Jumping Knowledge Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03536/) (2018)
- [GNNExplainer: Generating Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.03894/) (2019)
- [Benchmarking Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00982/) (2020)
- [On the Bottleneck of Graph Neural Networks and its Practical Implications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05205/) (2020)
- [Measuring and Relieving the Over-smoothing Problem for Graph Neural Networks from the Topological View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.03211/) (2019)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [DeepGCNs: Can GCNs Go as Deep as CNNs?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.03751/) (2019)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [PairNorm: Tackling Oversmoothing in GNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12223/) (2019)
- [Towards Deeper Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.09296/) (2020)
- [DeeperGCN: All You Need to Train Deeper GCNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07739/) (2020)
- [What graph neural networks cannot learn: depth vs width](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03199/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected countries across the world, demanding drastic public health policies to mitigate the spread of infection, leading to economic crisis as a collateral damage. In this work, we investigated the impact of human mobility (described via international commercial flights) on COVID-19 infection dynamics at the global scale. For this, we developed a graph neural network-based framework referred to as Dynamic Connectivity GraphSAGE (DCSAGE), which operates over spatiotemporal graphs and is well-suited for dynamically changing adjacency information. To obtain insights on the relative impact of different geographical locations, due to their associated air traffic, on the evolution of the pandemic, we conducted local sensitivity analysis on our model through node perturbation experiments. From our analyses, we identified Western Europe, North America, and Middle East as the leading geographical locations fueling the pandemic, attributed to the enormity of air traffic originating or transiting through these regions. We used these observations to identify tangible air traffic reduction strategies that can have a high impact on controlling the pandemic, with minimal interference to human mobility. Our work provides a robust deep learning-based tool to study global pandemics and is of key relevance to policy makers to take informed decisions regarding air traffic restrictions during future outbreaks.