# Uncertainty estimation for out-of-distribution detection in computational histopathology

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09909 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09909/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 32 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Oct 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
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- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [Aggregated Residual Transformations for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.05431/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Spectral Normalization for Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05957/) (2018)
- [ImageNet-trained CNNs are biased towards texture; increasing shape bias improves accuracy and robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12231/) (2018)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Closer Look at Memorization in Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05394/) (2017)
- [Challenging Common Assumptions in the Unsupervised Learning of Disentangled Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12359/) (2018)
- [BatchBALD: Efficient and Diverse Batch Acquisition for Deep Bayesian Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08158/) (2019)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [Confounding variables can degrade generalization performance of radiological deep learning models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00431/) (2018)
- [BatchEnsemble: An Alternative Approach to Efficient Ensemble and Lifelong Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06715/) (2020)
- [Laplace Redux -- Effortless Bayesian Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.14806/) (2021)
- [Learning with Noisy Labels Revisited: A Study Using Real-World Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.12088/) (2021)
- [Human uncertainty makes classification more robust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07086/) (2019)
- [Evaluating Scalable Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Robust Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01620/) (2019)
- [Quantifying the effects of data augmentation and stain color normalization in convolutional neural networks for computational pathology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.06543/) (2019)
- [Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07186/) (2020)
- [DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08501/) (2021)
- [Machine learning methods for histopathological image analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.00786/) (2017)
- [Does Your Dermatology Classifier Know What It Doesn't Know? Detecting the Long-Tail of Unseen Conditions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03829/) (2021)
- [Understanding the Disharmony between Dropout and Batch Normalization by Variance Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.05134/) (2018)
- [Uncertainty-Informed Deep Learning Models Enable High-Confidence Predictions for Digital Histopathology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.04516/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In computational histopathology algorithms now outperform humans on a range of tasks, but to date none are employed for automated diagnoses in the clinic. Before algorithms can be involved in such high-stakes decisions they need to "know when they don't know", i.e., they need to estimate their predictive uncertainty. This allows them to defer potentially erroneous predictions to a human pathologist, thus increasing their safety. Here, we evaluate the predictive performance and calibration of several uncertainty estimation methods on clinical histopathology data. We show that a distance-aware uncertainty estimation method outperforms commonly used approaches, such as Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles. However, we observe a drop in predictive performance and calibration on novel samples across all uncertainty estimation methods tested. We also investigate the use of uncertainty thresholding to reject out-of-distribution samples for selective prediction. We demonstrate the limitations of this approach and suggest areas for future research.