# PromptCast: A New Prompt-based Learning Paradigm for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.08964 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08964/

## Key facts

- Cited by 172 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Sep 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13461/) (2019)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Longformer: The Long-Document Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05150/) (2020)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Big Bird: Transformers for Longer Sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.14062/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Grounded Language-Image Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03857/) (2021)
- [PEGASUS: Pre-training with Extracted Gap-sentences for Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.08777/) (2019)
- [Aligning Books and Movies: Towards Story-like Visual Explanations by Watching Movies and Reading Books](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.06724/) (2015)
- [A Generalist Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.06175/) (2022)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Recipes for building an open-domain chatbot](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13637/) (2020)
- [Temporal Convolutional Networks for Action Segmentation and Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.05267/) (2016)
- [ProphetNet: Predicting Future N-gram for Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04063/) (2020)
- [Image Captioning: Transforming Objects into Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05963/) (2019)
- [A Dataset for Answering Time-Sensitive Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.06314/) (2021)
- [LIFT: Language-Interfaced Fine-Tuning for Non-Language Machine Learning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.06565/) (2022)
- [MobTCast: Leveraging Auxiliary Trajectory Forecasting for Human Mobility Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01401/) (2021)
- [ForecastQA: A Question Answering Challenge for Event Forecasting with Temporal Text Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00792/) (2020)
- [TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03528/) (2022)
- [Translating Human Mobility Forecasting through Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11481/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 172)

- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [TEST: Text Prototype Aligned Embedding to Activate LLM's Ability for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08241/) (2023)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [Domain Specialization as the Key to Make Large Language Models Disruptive: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18703/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models for Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01801/) (2024)
- [Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10196/) (2023)
- [SparseTSF: Modeling Long-term Time Series Forecasting with 1k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00946/) (2024)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [UniTS: A Unified Multi-Task Time Series Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.00131/) (2024)
- [Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11757/) (2024)
- [VisionTS: Visual Masked Autoencoders Are Free-Lunch Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.17253/) (2024)
- [Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10134/) (2024)
- [Large Language Model (LLM) for Telecommunications: A Comprehensive Survey on Principles, Key Techniques, and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10825/) (2024)
- [AutoTimes: Autoregressive Time Series Forecasters via Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02370/) (2024)
- [Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03182/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Time-Series Pre-Trained Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10716/) (2023)
- [Time Series Forecasting with LLMs: Understanding and Enhancing Model Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10835/) (2024)
- [Position: What Can Large Language Models Tell Us about Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02713/) (2024)
- [Language in the Flow of Time: Time-Series-Paired Texts Weaved into a Unified Temporal Narrative](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08942/) (2025)
- [TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07649/) (2025)
- [TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01013/) (2025)
- [SensorLLM: Aligning Large Language Models with Motion Sensors for Human Activity Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10624/) (2024)
- [GATGPT: A Pre-trained Large Language Model with Graph Attention Network for Spatiotemporal Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.14332/) (2023)
- [Can Language Beat Numerical Regression? Language-Based Multimodal Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18447/) (2024)
- [Large language models can be zero-shot anomaly detectors for time series?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14755/) (2024)
- [Zero-shot forecasting of chaotic systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.15771/) (2024)
- [Multi-Patch Prediction: Adapting LLMs for Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04852/) (2024)
- [Trajectory Flow Matching with Applications to Clinical Time Series Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21154/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper presents a new perspective on time series forecasting. In existing time series forecasting methods, the models take a sequence of numerical values as input and yield numerical values as output. The existing SOTA models are largely based on the Transformer architecture, modified with multiple encoding mechanisms to incorporate the context and semantics around the historical data. Inspired by the successes of pre-trained language foundation models, we pose a question about whether these models can also be adapted to solve time-series forecasting. Thus, we propose a new forecasting paradigm: prompt-based time series forecasting (PromptCast). In this novel task, the numerical input and output are transformed into prompts and the forecasting task is framed in a sentence-to-sentence manner, making it possible to directly apply language models for forecasting purposes. To support and facilitate the research of this task, we also present a large-scale dataset (PISA) that includes three real-world forecasting scenarios. We evaluate different SOTA numerical-based forecasting methods and language generation models. The benchmark results with various forecasting settings demonstrate the proposed PromptCast with language generation models is a promising research direction. Additionally, in comparison to conventional numerical-based forecasting, PromptCast shows a much better generalization ability under the zero-shot setting.