# Variable-Based Calibration for Machine Learning Classifiers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.15154 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15154/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
- [Closing the AI Accountability Gap: Defining an End-to-End Framework for Internal Algorithmic Auditing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00973/) (2020)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [Verified Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.10155/) (2019)
- [Human uncertainty makes classification more robust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07086/) (2019)
- [Evaluating model calibration in classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.06977/) (2019)
- [FairVis: Visual Analytics for Discovering Intersectional Bias in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.05419/) (2019)
- [Classification Under Human Assistance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11845/) (2020)
- [Field-aware Calibration: A Simple and Empirically Strong Method for Reliable Probabilistic Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10713/) (2019)
- [Probability Calibration Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.00111/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [On the Richness of Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04118/) (2023)
- [Calibrating the Predictions for Top-N Recommendations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11596/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration properties of a model with respect to a variable of interest, generalizing traditional score-based metrics such as expected calibration error (ECE). In particular, we find that models with near-perfect ECE can exhibit significant miscalibration as a function of features of the data. We demonstrate this phenomenon both theoretically and in practice on multiple well-known datasets, and show that it can persist after the application of existing calibration methods. To mitigate this issue, we propose strategies for detection, visualization, and quantification of variable-based calibration error. We then examine the limitations of current score-based calibration methods and explore potential modifications. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings, emphasizing that an understanding of calibration beyond simple aggregate measures is crucial for endeavors such as fairness and model interpretability.