# Inter- and Intra-Series Embeddings Fusion Network for Epidemiological Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.11515 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.11515/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Aug 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Deep Graph Clustering via Dual Correlation Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.14772/) (2021)
- [Inter-Series Attention Model for COVID-19 Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13006/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Machine Learning for Infectious Disease Risk Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03037/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The accurate forecasting of infectious epidemic diseases is the key to effective control of the epidemic situation in a region. Most existing methods ignore potential dynamic dependencies between regions or the importance of temporal dependencies and inter-dependencies between regions for prediction. In this paper, we propose an Inter- and Intra-Series Embeddings Fusion Network (SEFNet) to improve epidemic prediction performance. SEFNet consists of two parallel modules, named Inter-Series Embedding Module and Intra-Series Embedding Module. In Inter-Series Embedding Module, a multi-scale unified convolution component called Region-Aware Convolution is proposed, which cooperates with self-attention to capture dynamic dependencies between time series obtained from multiple regions. The Intra-Series Embedding Module uses Long Short-Term Memory to capture temporal relationships within each time series. Subsequently, we learn the influence degree of two embeddings and fuse them with the parametric-matrix fusion method. To further improve the robustness, SEFNet also integrates a traditional autoregressive component in parallel with nonlinear neural networks. Experiments on four real-world epidemic-related datasets show SEFNet is effective and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.