# Gaia: Graph Neural Network with Temporal Shift aware Attention for Gross Merchandise Value Forecast in E-commerce

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.13329 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.13329/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Jul 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [Spatial Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07455/) (2018)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Multi-Scale Context Aggregation by Dilated Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.07122/) (2015)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [Deep Learning on Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04202/) (2018)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12093/) (2019)
- [GeniePath: Graph Neural Networks with Adaptive Receptive Paths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.00910/) (2018)
- [How Much Can A Retailer Sell? Sales Forecasting on Tmall](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11940/) (2020)
- [Autoregressive Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network for Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02540/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Lumos: Heterogeneity-aware Federated Graph Learning over Decentralized Devices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.00492/) (2023)
- [TranSUN: A Preemptive Paradigm to Eradicate Retransformation Bias Intrinsically from Regression Models in Recommender Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13881/) (2025)
- [Delayed Feedback Modeling for Post-Click Gross Merchandise Volume Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.20307/) (2026)
- [EventCast: Hybrid Demand Forecasting in E-Commerce with LLM-Based Event Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.07695/) (2026)
- [Coden: Efficient Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Continuous Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12613/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

E-commerce has gone a long way in empowering merchants through the internet. In order to store the goods efficiently and arrange the marketing resource properly, it is important for them to make the accurate gross merchandise value (GMV) prediction. However, it's nontrivial to make accurate prediction with the deficiency of digitized data. In this article, we present a solution to better forecast GMV inside Alipay app. Thanks to graph neural networks (GNN) which has great ability to correlate different entities to enrich information, we propose Gaia, a graph neural network (GNN) model with temporal shift aware attention. Gaia leverages the relevant e-seller' sales information and learn neighbor correlation based on temporal dependencies. By testing on Alipay's real dataset and comparing with other baselines, Gaia has shown the best performance. And Gaia is deployed in the simulated online environment, which also achieves great improvement compared with baselines.