# Quantitative Stock Investment by Routing Uncertainty-Aware Trading Experts: A Multi-Task Learning Approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.07578 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07578/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 14 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jun 2022.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [GLaM: Efficient Scaling of Language Models with Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.06905/) (2021)
- [Scaling Vision with Sparse Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05974/) (2021)
- [Learning Factored Representations in a Deep Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.4314/) (2013)
- [Long-tailed Recognition by Routing Diverse Distribution-Aware Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01809/) (2020)
- [A Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02971/) (2017)
- [Temporal Relational Ranking for Stock Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09441/) (2018)
- [Qlib: An AI-oriented Quantitative Investment Platform](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11189/) (2020)
- [Listening to Chaotic Whispers: A Deep Learning Framework for News-oriented Stock Trend Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.02136/) (2017)
- [Risk-Averse Trust Region Optimization for Reward-Volatility Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.03193/) (2019)
- [Learning Multiple Stock Trading Patterns with Temporal Routing Adaptor and Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12950/) (2021)
- [CLVSA: A Convolutional LSTM Based Variational Sequence-to-Sequence Model with Attention for Predicting Trends of Financial Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.04041/) (2021)
- [DoubleEnsemble: A New Ensemble Method Based on Sample Reweighting and Feature Selection for Financial Data Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01265/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Lookahead Factor Models for Quantitative Investing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.04082/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [The Rise of Sparse Mixture-of-Experts: A Survey from Algorithmic Foundations to Decentralized Architectures and Vertical Domain Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08019/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Quantitative investment is a fundamental financial task that highly relies on accurate stock prediction and profitable investment decision making. Despite recent advances in deep learning (DL) have shown stellar performance on capturing trading opportunities in the stochastic stock market, we observe that the performance of existing DL methods is sensitive to random seeds and network initialization. To design more profitable DL methods, we analyze this phenomenon and find two major limitations of existing works. First, there is a noticeable gap between accurate financial predictions and profitable investment strategies. Second, investment decisions are made based on only one individual predictor without consideration of model uncertainty, which is inconsistent with the workflow in real-world trading firms. To tackle these two limitations, we first reformulate quantitative investment as a multi-task learning problem. Later on, we propose AlphaMix, a novel two-stage mixture-of-experts (MoE) framework for quantitative investment to mimic the efficient bottom-up trading strategy design workflow of successful trading firms. In Stage one, multiple independent trading experts are jointly optimized with an individual uncertainty-aware loss function. In Stage two, we train neural routers (corresponding to the role of a portfolio manager) to dynamically deploy these experts on an as-needed basis. AlphaMix is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone network architectures with consistent performance gains. Through extensive experiments on long-term real-world data spanning over five years on two of the most influential financial markets (US and China), we demonstrate that AlphaMix significantly outperforms many state-of-the-art baselines in terms of four financial criteria.