# Deep Transformer Model with Pre-Layer Normalization for COVID-19 Growth Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.06356 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.06356/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Jul 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Generating Long Sequences with Sparse Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10509/) (2019)
- [On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04745/) (2020)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [A Transformer-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02803/) (2020)
- [Learning Deep Transformer Models for Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01787/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Input Representations for Neural Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10853/) (2018)
- [Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting: The Influenza Prevalence Case](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08317/) (2020)
- [An Introductory Study on Time Series Modeling and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1302.6613/) (2013)
- [COVID-19 growth prediction using multivariate long short term memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04809/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Leveraging Wastewater Monitoring for COVID-19 Forecasting in the US: a Deep Learning study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08798/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Coronavirus disease or COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The first confirmed case caused by this virus was found at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan City, China. This case then spread throughout the world, including Indonesia. Therefore, the COVID-19 case was designated as a global pandemic by WHO. The growth of COVID-19 cases, especially in Indonesia, can be predicted using several approaches, such as the Deep Neural Network (DNN). One of the DNN models that can be used is Deep Transformer which can predict time series. The model is trained with several test scenarios to get the best model. The evaluation is finding the best hyperparameters. Then, further evaluation was carried out using the best hyperparameters setting of the number of prediction days, the optimizer, the number of features, and comparison with the former models of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). All evaluations used metric of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Based on the results of the evaluations, Deep Transformer produces the best results when using the Pre-Layer Normalization and predicting one day ahead with a MAPE value of 18.83. Furthermore, the model trained with the Adamax optimizer obtains the best performance among other tested optimizers. The performance of the Deep Transformer also exceeds other test models, which are LSTM and RNN.