# Scoring Rules for Performative Binary Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.02847 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02847/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jul 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06673/) (2020)
- [Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.06980/) (2015)
- [The Social Cost of Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.08460/) (2018)
- [How Do Classifiers Induce Agents To Invest Effort Strategically?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.05307/) (2018)
- [The Disparate Effects of Strategic Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.08646/) (2018)
- [Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01685/) (2021)
- [The Disparate Equilibria of Algorithmic Decision Making when Individuals Invest Rationally](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.04123/) (2019)
- [Interventions over Predictions: Reframing the Ethical Debate for Actuarial Risk Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.08238/) (2017)
- [Good and safe uses of AI Oracles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05541/) (2017)
- [No-Regret and Incentive-Compatible Online Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08837/) (2020)
- [Binary Scoring Rules that Incentivize Precision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.10669/) (2020)
- [Online Prediction with Selfish Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03615/) (2017)
- [Efficient Competitions and Online Learning with Strategic Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08358/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17601/) (2023)
- [Joint Scoring Rules: Zero-Sum Competition Avoids Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20732/) (2024)
- [Evolutionary Prediction Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03401/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world with their predictions. We also construct a simple class of scoring rules that avoids this problem.