# Prediction of Football Player Value using Bayesian Ensemble Approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13246 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13246/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jun 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [BOHB: Robust and Efficient Hyperparameter Optimization at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01774/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The transfer fees of sports players have become astronomical. This is because bringing players of great future value to the club is essential for their survival. We present a case study on the key factors affecting the world's top soccer players' transfer fees based on the FIFA data analysis. To predict each player's market value, we propose an improved LightGBM model by optimizing its hyperparameter using a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) algorithm. We identify prominent features by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm. The proposed method has been compared against the baseline regression models (e.g., linear regression, lasso, elastic net, kernel ridge regression) and gradient boosting model without hyperparameter optimization. The optimized LightGBM model showed an excellent accuracy of approximately 3.8, 1.4, and 1.8 times on average compared to the regression baseline models, GBDT, and LightGBM model in terms of RMSE. Our model offers interpretability in deciding what attributes football clubs should consider in recruiting players in the future.