# Short-range forecasts of global precipitation using deep learning-augmented numerical weather prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.11669 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.11669/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jun 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05433/) (2019)
- [Towards Physics-informed Deep Learning for Turbulent Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08655/) (2019)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [Deep learning to represent sub-grid processes in climate models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.04731/) (2018)
- [Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11927/) (2020)
- [Neural networks for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09091/) (2018)
- [Physics-informed neural networks for the shallow-water equations on the sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00615/) (2021)
- [A generative adversarial network approach to (ensemble) weather prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07718/) (2020)
- [Deep learning for improved global precipitation in numerical weather prediction systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12045/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting system](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12462/) (2023)
- [AR-KAN: Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02967/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Precipitation governs Earth's hydroclimate, and its daily spatiotemporal fluctuations have major socioeconomic effects. Advances in Numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been measured by the improvement of forecasts for various physical fields such as temperature and pressure; however, large biases exist in precipitation prediction. We augment the output of the well-known NWP model CFSv2 with deep learning to create a hybrid model that improves short-range global precipitation at 1-, 2-, and 3-day lead times. To hybridise, we address the sphericity of the global data by using modified DLWP-CS architecture which transforms all the fields to cubed-sphere projection. Dynamical model precipitation and surface temperature outputs are fed into a modified DLWP-CS (UNET) to forecast ground truth precipitation. While CFSv2's average bias is +5 to +7 mm/day over land, the multivariate deep learning model decreases it to within -1 to +1 mm/day. Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Ivan in 2004, China floods in 2010, India floods in 2005, and Myanmar storm Nargis in 2008 are used to confirm the substantial enhancement in the skill for the hybrid dynamical-deep learning model. CFSv2 typically shows a moderate to large bias in the spatial pattern and overestimates the precipitation at short-range time scales. The proposed deep learning augmented NWP model can address these biases and vastly improve the spatial pattern and magnitude of predicted precipitation. Deep learning enhanced CFSv2 reduces mean bias by 8x over important land regions for 1 day lead compared to CFSv2. The spatio-temporal deep learning system opens pathways to further the precision and accuracy in global short-range precipitation forecasts.