# Cryptocurrency Bubble Detection: A New Stock Market Dataset, Financial Task & Hyperbolic Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.06320 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.06320/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 90 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 May 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Effective Approaches to Attention-based Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.04025/) (2015)
- [Hyperbolic Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09112/) (2018)
- [Hyperbolic Graph Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12933/) (2019)
- [Hyperbolic Image Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.02239/) (2019)
- [Embedding Text in Hyperbolic Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.04313/) (2018)
- [Listening to Chaotic Whispers: A Deep Learning Framework for News-oriented Stock Trend Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.02136/) (2017)
- [Hyperbolic Graph Generator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.05180/) (2015)
- [Mutual-Excitation of Cryptocurrency Market Returns and Social Media Topics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.11093/) (2018)
- [Sensing Social Media Signals for Cryptocurrency News](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11451/) (2019)
- [An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.05831/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [A Survey of Large Language Models in Finance (FinLLMs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02315/) (2024)
- [Evaluating Impact of Social Media Posts by Executives on Stock Prices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.01287/) (2022)
- [Pre-Finetuning with Impact Duration Awareness for Stock Movement Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17419/) (2024)
- [FinTech for Social Good: A Research Agenda from NLP Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.06431/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The rapid spread of information over social media influences quantitative trading and investments. The growing popularity of speculative trading of highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies and meme stocks presents a fresh challenge in the financial realm. Investigating such "bubbles" - periods of sudden anomalous behavior of markets are critical in better understanding investor behavior and market dynamics. However, high volatility coupled with massive volumes of chaotic social media texts, especially for underexplored assets like cryptocoins pose a challenge to existing methods. Taking the first step towards NLP for cryptocoins, we present and publicly release CryptoBubbles, a novel multi-span identification task for bubble detection, and a dataset of more than 400 cryptocoins from 9 exchanges over five years spanning over two million tweets. Further, we develop a set of sequence-to-sequence hyperbolic models suited to this multi-span identification task based on the power-law dynamics of cryptocurrencies and user behavior on social media. We further test the effectiveness of our models under zero-shot settings on a test set of Reddit posts pertaining to 29 "meme stocks", which see an increase in trade volume due to social media hype. Through quantitative, qualitative, and zero-shot analyses on Reddit and Twitter spanning cryptocoins and meme-stocks, we show the practical applicability of CryptoBubbles and hyperbolic models.