# RadNet: Incident Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Road Graph Networks Using Traffic Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.05602 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05602/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Jun 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04431/) (2018)
- [TranAD: Deep Transformer Networks for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07284/) (2022)
- [Discrete Graph Structure Learning for Forecasting Multiple Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06861/) (2021)
- [Multivariate Time-series Anomaly Detection via Graph Attention Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02040/) (2020)
- [PredRNN++: Towards A Resolution of the Deep-in-Time Dilemma in Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06300/) (2018)
- [Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12093/) (2019)
- [Incrementally Improving Graph WaveNet Performance on Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.07390/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [DG-Trans: Dual-level Graph Transformer for Spatiotemporal Incident Impact Prediction on Traffic Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12238/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Efficient and accurate incident prediction in spatio-temporal systems is critical to minimize service downtime and optimize performance. This work aims to utilize historic data to predict and diagnose incidents using spatio-temporal forecasting. We consider the specific use case of road traffic systems where incidents take the form of anomalous events, such as accidents or broken-down vehicles. To tackle this, we develop a neural model, called RadNet, which forecasts system parameters such as average vehicle speeds for a future timestep. As such systems largely follow daily or weekly periodicity, we compare RadNet's predictions against historical averages to label incidents. Unlike prior work, RadNet infers spatial and temporal trends in both permutations, finally combining the dense representations before forecasting. This facilitates informed inference and more accurate incident detection. Experiments with two publicly available and a new road traffic dataset demonstrate that the proposed model gives up to 8% higher prediction F1 scores compared to the state-of-the-art methods.