# CEP3: Community Event Prediction with Neural Point Process on Graph

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.10624 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10624/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01207/) (2019)
- [Deep Graph Library: A Graph-Centric, Highly-Performant Package for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01315/) (2019)
- [Transformer Hawkes Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09291/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning in Temporal Networks via Causal Anonymous Walks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05974/) (2021)
- [Know-Evolve: Deep Temporal Reasoning for Dynamic Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.05742/) (2017)
- [Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03528/) (2021)
- [Modeling The Intensity Function Of Point Process Via Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08982/) (2017)
- [Language Model Evaluation Beyond Perplexity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00085/) (2021)
- [A Survey on Embedding Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01229/) (2021)
- [Temporal Network Embedding with Micro- and Macro-dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04246/) (2019)
- [Wasserstein Learning of Deep Generative Point Process Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08051/) (2017)
- [Learning Temporal Point Processes via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05016/) (2018)
- [COEVOLVE: A Joint Point Process Model for Information Diffusion and Network Co-evolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.02293/) (2015)
- [Modeling Event Propagation via Graph Biased Temporal Point Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01623/) (2019)
- [Recurrent Event Network: Autoregressive Structure Inference over Temporal Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.05530/) (2019)
- [Tracking Dynamic Point Processes on Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0031/) (2014)
- [Deep Structural Point Process for Learning Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03573/) (2021)
- [Decoupled Learning for Factorial Marked Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.06805/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Many real world applications can be formulated as event forecasting on Continuous Time Dynamic Graphs (CTDGs) where the occurrence of a timed event between two entities is represented as an edge along with its occurrence timestamp in the graphs.However, most previous works approach the problem in compromised settings, either formulating it as a link prediction task on the graph given the event time or a time prediction problem given which event will happen next. In this paper, we propose a novel model combining Graph Neural Networks and Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) that jointly forecasts multiple link events and their timestamps on communities over a CTDG. Moreover, to scale our model to large graphs, we factorize the jointly event prediction problem into three easier conditional probability modeling problems.To evaluate the effectiveness of our model and the rationale behind such a decomposition, we establish a set of benchmarks and evaluation metrics for this event forecasting task. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our model in terms of both model accuracy and training efficiency.