# Can counterfactual explanations of AI systems' predictions skew lay users' causal intuitions about the world? If so, can we correct for that?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.06241 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.06241/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 65 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6034/) (2013)
- [Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04730/) (2017)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07269/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Methods for Interpreting and Understanding Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07979/) (2017)
- [FACE: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09369/) (2019)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence: Understanding, Visualizing and Interpreting Deep Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.08296/) (2017)
- [Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanations for Consequential Decisions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11190/) (2019)
- [A survey of algorithmic recourse: definitions, formulations, solutions, and prospects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.04050/) (2020)
- [The Hidden Assumptions Behind Counterfactual Explanations and Principal Reasons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04930/) (2019)
- [How do Humans Understand Explanations from Machine Learning Systems? An Evaluation of the Human-Interpretability of Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.00682/) (2018)
- [Towards Unifying Feature Attribution and Counterfactual Explanations: Different Means to the Same End](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04917/) (2020)
- [Explaining Black-Box Algorithms Using Probabilistic Contrastive Counterfactuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11972/) (2021)
- [Why Does My Model Fail? Contrastive Local Explanations for Retail Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.00085/) (2019)
- [Features of Explainability: How users understand counterfactual and causal explanations for categorical and continuous features in XAI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.10152/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [T-COL: Generating Counterfactual Explanations for General User Preferences on Variable Machine Learning Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16146/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactual (CF) explanations have been employed as one of the modes of explainability in explainable AI-both to increase the transparency of AI systems and to provide recourse. Cognitive science and psychology, however, have pointed out that people regularly use CFs to express causal relationships. Most AI systems are only able to capture associations or correlations in data so interpreting them as casual would not be justified. In this paper, we present two experiment (total N = 364) exploring the effects of CF explanations of AI system's predictions on lay people's causal beliefs about the real world. In Experiment 1 we found that providing CF explanations of an AI system's predictions does indeed (unjustifiably) affect people's causal beliefs regarding factors/features the AI uses and that people are more likely to view them as causal factors in the real world. Inspired by the literature on misinformation and health warning messaging, Experiment 2 tested whether we can correct for the unjustified change in causal beliefs. We found that pointing out that AI systems capture correlations and not necessarily causal relationships can attenuate the effects of CF explanations on people's causal beliefs.