# Machine Learning Workflow to Explain Black-box Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease Classification Evaluated for Multiple Datasets

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.05907 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05907/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 110 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6034/) (2013)
- [Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.2901/) (2013)
- [Striving for Simplicity: The All Convolutional Net](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6806/) (2014)
- [Data Shapley: Equitable Valuation of Data for Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.02868/) (2019)
- [Unmasking Clever Hans Predictors and Assessing What Machines Really Learn](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10178/) (2019)
- [Consistent Individualized Feature Attribution for Tree Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03888/) (2018)
- [Problems with Shapley-value-based explanations as feature importance measures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11097/) (2020)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks for Classification of Alzheimer's Disease: Overview and Reproducible Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.07773/) (2019)
- [dalex: Responsible Machine Learning with Interactive Explainability and Fairness in Python](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14406/) (2020)
- [Quantifying Model Complexity via Functional Decomposition for Better Post-Hoc Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.03867/) (2019)
- [Visual Explanations From Deep 3D Convolutional Neural Networks for Alzheimer's Disease Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02544/) (2018)
- [Visualizing Convolutional Networks for MRI-based Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.02874/) (2018)
- [Triplot: model agnostic measures and visualisations for variable importance in predictive models that take into account the hierarchical correlation structure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03403/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Looking deeper into interpretable deep learning in neuroimaging: a comprehensive survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09615/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.