# Optimal Lighting Control in Greenhouses Using Bayesian Neural Networks for Sunlight Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.03733 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.03733/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [CVXPY: A Python-Embedded Modeling Language for Convex Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.00943/) (2016)
- [A Rewriting System for Convex Optimization Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04494/) (2017)
- [Bayesian Layers: A Module for Neural Network Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03973/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A TinyML Reinforcement Learning Approach for Energy-Efficient Light Control in Low-Cost Greenhouse Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.01167/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Controlling the environmental parameters, including light in greenhouses, increases the crop yield; however, the electricity cost of supplemental lighting can be high. Therefore, the importance of applying cost-effective lighting methods arises. In this paper, an optimal supplemental lighting control approach is developed considering a variational inference Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model for sunlight prediction. The predictive model is validated through testing the model on the historical solar data of a site located at North Carolina (R2=0.9971, RMSE=1.8%). The proposed lighting approach is shown to minimize electricity cost by considering the BNN-based sunlight prediction, plant light needs, and variable electricity pricing when solving the underlying optimization problem. For evaluation, the new strategy is compared to: 1) a Markov-based prediction method, which solves the same optimization problem, assuming a Markov model for sunlight prediction; 2) a heuristic method which aims to supply a fixed amount of light. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the electricity cost improvements of the BNN-based approach. The results show that the BNN-based approach reduces cost by (on average) 2.27% and 43.91% compared to the Markov prediction-based method and the heuristic method, respectively, throughout a year.