# Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.07575 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/

## Key facts

- Cited by 168 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Feb 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Relational inductive biases, deep learning, and graph networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01261/) (2018)
- [Learning Mesh-Based Simulation with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03409/) (2020)
- [Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01010/) (2021)
- [Message Passing Neural PDE Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03376/) (2022)
- [Discovering Symbolic Models from Deep Learning with Inductive Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11287/) (2020)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [Solver-in-the-Loop: Learning from Differentiable Physics to Interact with Iterative PDE-Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00016/) (2020)
- [MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12140/) (2020)
- [Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11927/) (2020)
- [Gradients are Not All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.05803/) (2021)
- [Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05107/) (2021)
- [Machine Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.12132/) (2019)
- [Variational Data Assimilation with a Learned Inverse Observation Operator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11192/) (2021)
- [Skillful Twelve Hour Precipitation Forecasts using Large Context Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.07470/) (2021)
- [Combining distribution-based neural networks to predict weather forecast probabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14430/) (2021)
- [MS-nowcasting: Operational Precipitation Nowcasting with Convolutional LSTMs at Microsoft Weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09954/) (2021)
- [Machine Learning Emulation of 3D Cloud Radiative Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11919/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 168)

- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05732/) (2023)
- [Towards Multi-spatiotemporal-scale Generalized PDE Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15616/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02556/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03759/) (2023)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [DYffusion: A Dynamics-informed Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01984/) (2023)
- [MultiScale MeshGraphNets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.00612/) (2022)
- [Clifford Neural Layers for PDE Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.04934/) (2022)
- [ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10024/) (2024)
- [Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06079/) (2023)
- [Graph Neural Networks for temporal graphs: State of the art, open challenges, and opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01018/) (2023)
- [ACE: A fast, skillful learned global atmospheric model for climate prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02074/) (2023)
- [ClimateLearn: Benchmarking Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01909/) (2023)
- [Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03014/) (2023)
- [On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04285/) (2024)
- [SwinVRNN: A Data-Driven Ensemble Forecasting Model via Learned Distribution Perturbation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13158/) (2022)
- [SwinRDM: Integrate SwinRNN with Diffusion Model towards High-Resolution and High-Quality Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03110/) (2023)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04467/) (2024)
- [LUCIE: A Lightweight Uncoupled ClImate Emulator with long-term stability and physical consistency for O(1000)-member ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16297/) (2024)
- [Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04759/) (2024)
- [W-MAE: Pre-trained weather model with masked autoencoder for multi-variable weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08754/) (2023)
- [Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Mesh](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06253/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.