# Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05924/

## Key facts

- Cited by 163 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 75 of its 181 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Feb 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 75)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [wav2vec 2.0: A Framework for Self-Supervised Learning of Speech Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11477/) (2020)
- [Scaling Up Visual and Vision-Language Representation Learning With Noisy Text Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05918/) (2021)
- [Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.01852/) (2015)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Distributed Representations of Words and Phrases and their Compositionality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.4546/) (2013)
- [Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02971/) (2015)
- [Playing Atari with Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.5602/) (2013)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [ALBERT: A Lite BERT for Self-supervised Learning of Language Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.11942/) (2019)
- [YOLOv3: An Incremental Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.02767/) (2018)
- [Large Scale GAN Training for High Fidelity Natural Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11096/) (2018)
- [HuBERT: Self-Supervised Speech Representation Learning by Masked Prediction of Hidden Units](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07447/) (2021)
- [Xception: Deep Learning with Depthwise Separable Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02357/) (2016)
- [Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.2901/) (2013)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 163)

- [The RefinedWeb Dataset for Falcon LLM: Outperforming Curated Corpora with Web Data, and Web Data Only](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01116/) (2023)
- [Will we run out of data? Limits of LLM scaling based on human-generated data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.04325/) (2022)
- [From Words to Watts: Benchmarking the Energy Costs of Large Language Model Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03003/) (2023)
- [Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14499/) (2025)
- [Auditing large language models: a three-layered approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.08500/) (2023)
- [Toward Transparent AI: A Survey on Interpreting the Inner Structures of Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.13243/) (2022)
- [EHRSHOT: An EHR Benchmark for Few-Shot Evaluation of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02028/) (2023)
- [Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03718/) (2023)
- [BioMedLM: A 2.7B Parameter Language Model Trained On Biomedical Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18421/) (2024)
- [Eight Things to Know about Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.00612/) (2023)
- [Spear Phishing With Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06972/) (2023)
- [Hardware-aware training for large-scale and diverse deep learning inference workloads using in-memory computing-based accelerators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.08469/) (2023)
- [Machine Learning Model Sizes and the Parameter Gap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02852/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models and the Reverse Turing Test](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.14382/) (2022)
- [Scaling Laws for a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.00849/) (2022)
- [Compute-Efficient Deep Learning: Algorithmic Trends and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06640/) (2022)
- [Towards MoE Deployment: Mitigating Inefficiencies in Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06182/) (2023)
- [Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models: An evaluation of risks, benefits, and alternative methods for pursuing open-source objectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09227/) (2023)
- [Evaluation of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 for supporting real-world information needs in healthcare delivery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13714/) (2023)
- [Scaling Smart: Accelerating Large Language Model Pre-training with Small Model Initialization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12903/) (2024)
- [ChatGPT Needs SPADE (Sustainability, PrivAcy, Digital divide, and Ethics) Evaluation: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.03123/) (2023)
- [NeuroBench: A Framework for Benchmarking Neuromorphic Computing Algorithms and Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.04640/) (2023)
- [Green Edge AI: A Contemporary Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00333/) (2023)
- [SpiNNaker2: A Large-Scale Neuromorphic System for Event-Based and Asynchronous Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04491/) (2024)
- [What does it take to catch a Chinchilla? Verifying Rules on Large-Scale Neural Network Training via Compute Monitoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11341/) (2023)
- [A Material Lens on Coloniality in NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08391/) (2023)
- [Quartet II: Accurate LLM Pre-Training in NVFP4 by Improved Unbiased Gradient Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.22813/) (2026)
- [The Compute Divide in Machine Learning: A Threat to Academic Contribution and Scrutiny?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02452/) (2024)
- [Towards Climate Awareness in NLP Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05071/) (2022)
- [Carbon Footprint of Selecting and Training Deep Learning Models for Medical Image Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02202/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Compute, data, and algorithmic advances are the three fundamental factors that guide the progress of modern Machine Learning (ML). In this paper we study trends in the most readily quantified factor - compute. We show that before 2010 training compute grew in line with Moore's law, doubling roughly every 20 months. Since the advent of Deep Learning in the early 2010s, the scaling of training compute has accelerated, doubling approximately every 6 months. In late 2015, a new trend emerged as firms developed large-scale ML models with 10 to 100-fold larger requirements in training compute. Based on these observations we split the history of compute in ML into three eras: the Pre Deep Learning Era, the Deep Learning Era and the Large-Scale Era. Overall, our work highlights the fast-growing compute requirements for training advanced ML systems.