# Socioeconomic disparities and COVID-19: the causal connections

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.07026 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07026/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Jan 2022.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Explaining individual predictions when features are dependent: More accurate approximations to Shapley values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.10464/) (2019)
- [Causal Shapley Values: Exploiting Causal Knowledge to Explain Individual Predictions of Complex Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.01625/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The analysis of causation is a challenging task that can be approached in various ways. With the increasing use of machine learning based models in computational socioeconomics, explaining these models while taking causal connections into account is a necessity. In this work, we advocate the use of an explanatory framework from cooperative game theory augmented with do calculus, namely causal Shapley values. Using causal Shapley values, we analyze socioeconomic disparities that have a causal link to the spread of COVID-19 in the USA. We study several phases of the disease spread to show how the causal connections change over time. We perform a causal analysis using random effects models and discuss the correspondence between the two methods to verify our results. We show the distinct advantages a non-linear machine learning models have over linear models when performing a multivariate analysis, especially since the machine learning models can map out non-linear correlations in the data. In addition, the causal Shapley values allow for including the causal structure in the variable importance computed for the machine learning model.