# Uncertainty Detection and Reduction in Neural Decoding of EEG Signals

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.00627 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.00627/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Dec 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.2901/) (2013)
- [RandAugment: Practical automated data augmentation with a reduced search space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13719/) (2019)
- [EEGNet: A Compact Convolutional Network for EEG-based Brain-Computer Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.08024/) (2016)
- [Probabilistic Backpropagation for Scalable Learning of Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.05336/) (2015)
- [Concrete Dropout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07832/) (2017)
- [Pitfalls of In-Domain Uncertainty Estimation and Ensembling in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06470/) (2020)
- [A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06890/) (2019)
- [Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.11327/) (2018)
- [Towards safe deep learning: accurately quantifying biomarker uncertainty in neural network predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.08640/) (2018)
- [Cascade and Parallel Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks on EEG-based Intention Recognition for Brain Computer Interface](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.06578/) (2017)
- [Tractable Inference for Complex Stochastic Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.7362/) (2013)
- [Robust Convolutional Neural Networks under Adversarial Noise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06306/) (2015)

## Abstract (arXiv)

EEG decoding systems based on deep neural networks have been widely used in decision making of brain computer interfaces (BCI). Their predictions, however, can be unreliable given the significant variance and noise in EEG signals. Previous works on EEG analysis mainly focus on the exploration of noise pattern in the source signal, while the uncertainty during the decoding process is largely unexplored. Automatically detecting and reducing such decoding uncertainty is important for BCI motor imagery applications such as robotic arm control etc. In this work, we proposed an uncertainty estimation and reduction model (UNCER) to quantify and mitigate the uncertainty during the EEG decoding process. It utilized a combination of dropout oriented method and Bayesian neural network for uncertainty estimation to incorporate both the uncertainty in the input signal and the uncertainty in the model parameters. We further proposed a data augmentation based approach for uncertainty reduction. The model can be integrated into current widely used EEG neural decoders without change of architecture. We performed extensive experiments for uncertainty estimation and its reduction in both intra-subject EEG decoding and cross-subject EEG decoding on two public motor imagery datasets, where the proposed model achieves significant improvement both on the quality of estimated uncertainty and the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction.