# On the Effectiveness of Mode Exploration in Bayesian Model Averaging for Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.03773 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03773/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Dec 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14421/) (2021)
- [Cyclical Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Bayesian Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.03932/) (2019)
- [Training independent subnetworks for robust prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.06610/) (2020)
- [Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07186/) (2020)
- [Subspace Inference for Bayesian Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07504/) (2019)
- [Coresets for Scalable Bayesian Logistic Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.06423/) (2016)
- [Bayesian Coreset Construction via Greedy Iterative Geodesic Ascent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01737/) (2018)
- [Automated Scalable Bayesian Inference via Hilbert Coresets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.05053/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multiple techniques for producing calibrated predictive probabilities using deep neural networks in supervised learning settings have emerged that leverage approaches to ensemble diverse solutions discovered during cyclic training or training from multiple random starting points (deep ensembles). However, only a limited amount of work has investigated the utility of exploring the local region around each diverse solution (posterior mode). Using three well-known deep architectures on the CIFAR-10 dataset, we evaluate several simple methods for exploring local regions of the weight space with respect to Brier score, accuracy, and expected calibration error. We consider both Bayesian inference techniques (variational inference and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo applied to the softmax output layer) as well as utilizing the stochastic gradient descent trajectory near optima. While adding separate modes to the ensemble uniformly improves performance, we show that the simple mode exploration methods considered here produce little to no improvement over ensembles without mode exploration.