# A Daily Tourism Demand Prediction Framework Based on Multi-head Attention CNN: The Case of The Foreign Entrant in South Korea

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00328 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00328/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [WaveNet: A Generative Model for Raw Audio](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.03499/) (2016)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03122/) (2017)
- [Weight Normalization: A Simple Reparameterization to Accelerate Training of Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.07868/) (2016)
- [Time Series Data Augmentation for Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.12478/) (2020)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Networks for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.06995/) (2016)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.