# Flight Demand Forecasting with Transformers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.04471 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.04471/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Nov 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Effective Approaches to Attention-based Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.04025/) (2015)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [A Transformer-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02803/) (2020)
- [Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting: The Influenza Prevalence Case](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08317/) (2020)
- [Domain Adaptation for Time Series Forecasting via Attention Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.06828/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning for Flight Demand Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04476/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Future Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14413/) (2022)
- [Predicting the Skies: A Novel Model for Flight-Level Passenger Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.03397/) (2024)
- [TripCast: Pre-training of Masked 2D Transformers for Trip Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18612/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Transformers have become the de-facto standard in the natural language processing (NLP) field. They have also gained momentum in computer vision and other domains. Transformers can enable artificial intelligence (AI) models to dynamically focus on certain parts of their input and thus reason more effectively. Inspired by the success of transformers, we adopted this technique to predict strategic flight departure demand in multiple horizons. This work was conducted in support of a MITRE-developed mobile application, Pacer, which displays predicted departure demand to general aviation (GA) flight operators so they can have better situation awareness of the potential for departure delays during busy periods. Field demonstrations involving Pacer's previously designed rule-based prediction method showed that the prediction accuracy of departure demand still has room for improvement. This research strives to improve prediction accuracy from two key aspects: better data sources and robust forecasting algorithms. We leveraged two data sources, Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) and System Wide Information Management (SWIM), as our input. We then trained forecasting models with temporal fusion transformer (TFT) for five different airports. Case studies show that TFTs can perform better than traditional forecasting methods by large margins, and they can result in better prediction across diverse airports and with better interpretability.