# Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.00124 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00124/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Oct 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Learning Deep Features for Discriminative Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.04150/) (2015)
- [Pre-training without Natural Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.08515/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction of AMV, especially the extreme values, is of great societal utility for understanding and responding to regional climate change. This work tests multiple machine learning models to improve the state of AMV prediction from maps of sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea level pressure in the North Atlantic region. We use data from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, a state-of-the-art climate model with 3,440 years of data. Our results demonstrate that all of the models we use outperform the traditional persistence forecast baseline. Predicting the AMV is important for identifying future extreme temperatures and precipitation, as well as hurricane activity, in Europe and North America up to 25 years in advance.