# An Adaptive Clustering Approach for Accident Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.12308 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.12308/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Aug 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Accident Risk Prediction based on Heterogeneous Sparse Data: New Dataset and Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09638/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Creating Knowledge Graphs for Geographic Data on the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.08823/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Traffic accident prediction is a crucial task in the mobility domain. State-of-the-art accident prediction approaches are based on static and uniform grid-based geospatial aggregations, limiting their capability for fine-grained predictions. This property becomes particularly problematic in more complex regions such as city centers. In such regions, a grid cell can contain subregions with different properties; furthermore, an actual accident-prone region can be split across grid cells arbitrarily. This paper proposes Adaptive Clustering Accident Prediction (ACAP) - a novel accident prediction method based on a grid growing algorithm. ACAP applies adaptive clustering to the observed geospatial accident distribution and performs embeddings of temporal, accident-related, and regional features to increase prediction accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ACAP method using open real-world accident datasets from three cities in Germany. We demonstrate that ACAP improves the accident prediction performance for complex regions by 2-3 percent points in F1-score by adapting the geospatial aggregation to the distribution of the underlying spatio-temporal events. Our grid growing approach outperforms the clustering-based baselines by four percent points in terms of F1-score on average.