# DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.09640 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/

## Key facts

- Cited by 295 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Aug 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [End-to-End Object Detection with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.12872/) (2020)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04394/) (2017)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01296/) (2019)
- [Multiple Futures Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.00997/) (2019)
- [IntentNet: Learning to Predict Intention from Raw Sensor Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.07907/) (2021)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08945/) (2019)
- [Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12036/) (2020)
- [LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06653/) (2021)
- [TPCN: Temporal Point Cloud Networks for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03067/) (2021)
- [Diverse Trajectory Forecasting with Determinantal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.04967/) (2019)
- [TPNet: Trajectory Proposal Network for Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.12255/) (2020)
- [What-If Motion Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.10587/) (2020)
- [The Garden of Forking Paths: Towards Multi-Future Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.06445/) (2019)
- [MANTRA: Memory Augmented Networks for Multiple Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03340/) (2020)
- [Recursive Social Behavior Graph for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10402/) (2020)
- [Learning to Predict Vehicle Trajectories with Model-based Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04027/) (2021)
- [Egocentric Vision-based Future Vehicle Localization for Intelligent Driving Assistance Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.07408/) (2018)
- [Discrete Residual Flow for Probabilistic Pedestrian Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.08041/) (2019)
- [Stochastic Prediction of Multi-Agent Interactions from Partial Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.09641/) (2019)
- [Goal-driven Long-Term Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.02751/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 295)

- [DriveVLM: The Convergence of Autonomous Driving and Large Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12289/) (2024)
- [ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07601/) (2022)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [BEVerse: Unified Perception and Prediction in Birds-Eye-View for Vision-Centric Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09743/) (2022)
- [Rethinking the Open-Loop Evaluation of End-to-End Autonomous Driving in nuScenes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10430/) (2023)
- [Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08710/) (2023)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [GameFormer: Game-theoretic Modeling and Learning of Transformer-based Interactive Prediction and Planning for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.05760/) (2023)
- [PersFormer: 3D Lane Detection via Perspective Transformer and the OpenLane Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11089/) (2022)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [GoalFlow: Goal-Driven Flow Matching for Multimodal Trajectories Generation in End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05689/) (2025)
- [ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01582/) (2022)
- [HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09753/) (2022)
- [Towards learning-based planning:The nuPlan benchmark for real-world autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04133/) (2024)
- [Recent Advancements in End-to-End Autonomous Driving using Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.04370/) (2023)
- [THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06607/) (2021)
- [ReasonNet: End-to-End Driving with Temporal and Global Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10507/) (2023)
- [M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11884/) (2022)
- [BITS: Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.12403/) (2022)
- [Differentiable Integrated Motion Prediction and Planning with Learnable Cost Function for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10422/) (2022)
- [Forecast-MAE: Self-supervised Pre-training for Motion Forecasting with Masked Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09882/) (2023)
- [GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02545/) (2022)
- [Physical Adversarial Attack meets Computer Vision: A Decade Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15179/) (2022)
- [FusionAD: Multi-modality Fusion for Prediction and Planning Tasks of Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.01006/) (2023)
- [Motion Inspired Unsupervised Perception and Prediction in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08061/) (2022)
- [TrafficBots: Towards World Models for Autonomous Driving Simulation and Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04116/) (2023)
- [CAT: Closed-loop Adversarial Training for Safe End-to-End Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12432/) (2023)
- [LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13933/) (2023)
- [BehaviorGPT: Smart Agent Simulation for Autonomous Driving with Next-Patch Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17372/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Due to the stochasticity of human behaviors, predicting the future trajectories of road agents is challenging for autonomous driving. Recently, goal-based multi-trajectory prediction methods are proved to be effective, where they first score over-sampled goal candidates and then select a final set from them. However, these methods usually involve goal predictions based on sparse pre-defined anchors and heuristic goal selection algorithms. In this work, we propose an anchor-free and end-to-end trajectory prediction model, named DenseTNT, that directly outputs a set of trajectories from dense goal candidates. In addition, we introduce an offline optimization-based technique to provide multi-future pseudo-labels for our final online model. Experiments show that DenseTNT achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking 1st on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark and being the 1st place winner of the 2021 Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.