# Shifts: A Dataset of Real Distributional Shift Across Multiple Large-Scale Tasks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07455 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07455/

## Key facts

- Cited by 101 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 57 of its 90 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jul 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 57)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16241/) (2020)
- [A Call for Clarity in Reporting BLEU Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.08771/) (2018)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [fairseq: A Fast, Extensible Toolkit for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01038/) (2019)
- [Google's Neural Machine Translation System: Bridging the Gap between Human and Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.08144/) (2016)
- [Natural Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07174/) (2019)
- [Datasheets for Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09010/) (2018)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Revisiting Deep Learning Models for Tabular Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11959/) (2021)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Examples Are Not Easily Detected: Bypassing Ten Detection Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07263/) (2017)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [End-to-end Driving via Conditional Imitation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.02410/) (2017)
- [Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02757/) (2019)
- [BatchBALD: Efficient and Diverse Batch Acquisition for Deep Bayesian Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08158/) (2019)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Generalized ODIN: Detecting Out-of-distribution Image without Learning from Out-of-distribution Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11297/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 101)

- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [On the Importance of Gradients for Detecting Distributional Shifts in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00218/) (2021)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [SHIFT: A Synthetic Driving Dataset for Continuous Multi-Task Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08367/) (2022)
- [Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10196/) (2023)
- [Towards learning-based planning:The nuPlan benchmark for real-world autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04133/) (2024)
- [State-of-the-art generalisation research in NLP: A taxonomy and review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03050/) (2022)
- [Wild-Time: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shift over Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14238/) (2022)
- [TabR: Tabular Deep Learning Meets Nearest Neighbors in 2023](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.14338/) (2023)
- [GLUE-X: Evaluating Natural Language Understanding Models from an Out-of-distribution Generalization Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.08073/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Distribution Shift in Tabular Data with TableShift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07577/) (2023)
- [UniTraj: A Unified Framework for Scalable Vehicle Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15098/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Bayesian Deep Learning on Diabetic Retinopathy Detection Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12717/) (2022)
- [Revisiting Pretraining Objectives for Tabular Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.03208/) (2022)
- [Turning the Tables: Biased, Imbalanced, Dynamic Tabular Datasets for ML Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.13358/) (2022)
- [Koopman Neural Forecaster for Time Series with Temporal Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03675/) (2022)
- [Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01032/) (2024)
- [TabReD: Analyzing Pitfalls and Filling the Gaps in Tabular Deep Learning Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.19380/) (2024)
- [Understanding Gradual Domain Adaptation: Improved Analysis, Optimal Path and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08200/) (2022)
- [WOODS: Benchmarks for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.09978/) (2022)
- [SIND: A Drone Dataset at Signalized Intersection in China](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.02297/) (2022)
- [WOMD-LiDAR: Raw Sensor Dataset Benchmark for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03834/) (2023)
- [Disentangling Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01558/) (2022)
- [CreINNs: Credal-Set Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty Estimation in Classification Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05043/) (2024)
- [Exploring Predictive Uncertainty and Calibration in NLP: A Study on the Impact of Method & Data Scarcity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.15452/) (2022)
- [trajdata: A Unified Interface to Multiple Human Trajectory Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13924/) (2023)
- [Drift-Resilient TabPFN: In-Context Learning Temporal Distribution Shifts on Tabular Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.10634/) (2024)
- [Shifts 2.0: Extending The Dataset of Real Distributional Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.15407/) (2022)
- [GradOrth: A Simple yet Efficient Out-of-Distribution Detection with Orthogonal Projection of Gradients](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00310/) (2023)
- [Beyond Deep Ensembles: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Bayesian Deep Learning under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12306/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

There has been significant research done on developing methods for improving robustness to distributional shift and uncertainty estimation. In contrast, only limited work has examined developing standard datasets and benchmarks for assessing these approaches. Additionally, most work on uncertainty estimation and robustness has developed new techniques based on small-scale regression or image classification tasks. However, many tasks of practical interest have different modalities, such as tabular data, audio, text, or sensor data, which offer significant challenges involving regression and discrete or continuous structured prediction. Thus, given the current state of the field, a standardized large-scale dataset of tasks across a range of modalities affected by distributional shifts is necessary. This will enable researchers to meaningfully evaluate the plethora of recently developed uncertainty quantification methods, as well as assessment criteria and state-of-the-art baselines. In this work, we propose the Shifts Dataset for evaluation of uncertainty estimates and robustness to distributional shift. The dataset, which has been collected from industrial sources and services, is composed of three tasks, with each corresponding to a particular data modality: tabular weather prediction, machine translation, and self-driving car (SDC) vehicle motion prediction. All of these data modalities and tasks are affected by real, "in-the-wild" distributional shifts and pose interesting challenges with respect to uncertainty estimation. In this work we provide a description of the dataset and baseline results for all tasks.