# Uncertainty-aware Human Motion Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03575 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03575/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jul 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [On human motion prediction using recurrent neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.02445/) (2017)
- [Learning Trajectory Dependencies for Human Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.05436/) (2019)
- [Structural-RNN: Deep Learning on Spatio-Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05298/) (2015)
- [History Repeats Itself: Human Motion Prediction via Motion Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.11755/) (2020)
- [Dynamic Multiscale Graph Neural Networks for 3D Skeleton-Based Human Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.08802/) (2020)
- [Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Model for Human Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.00655/) (2018)
- [Deep representation learning for human motion prediction and classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07486/) (2017)
- [Structured Prediction Helps 3D Human Motion Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09070/) (2019)
- [Imitation Learning for Human Pose Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.03449/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Expressive Forecasting of 3D Whole-body Human Motions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11972/) (2023)
- [Existence Is Chaos: Enhancing 3D Human Motion Prediction with Uncertainty Consideration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14104/) (2024)
- [Personalized Pose Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03528/) (2023)
- [Gaussian-Mixture Latent Flow for Stochastic 3D Human Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.21093/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Human motion prediction is essential for tasks such as human motion analysis and human-robot interactions. Most existing approaches have been proposed to realize motion prediction. However, they ignore an important task, the evaluation of the quality of the predicted result. It is far more enough for current approaches in actual scenarios because people can't know how to interact with the machine without the evaluation of prediction, and unreliable predictions may mislead the machine to harm the human. Hence, we propose an uncertainty-aware framework for human motion prediction (UA-HMP). Concretely, we first design an uncertainty-aware predictor through Gaussian modeling to achieve the value and the uncertainty of predicted motion. Then, an uncertainty-guided learning scheme is proposed to quantitate the uncertainty and reduce the negative effect of the noisy samples during optimization for better performance. Our proposed framework is easily combined with current SOTA baselines to overcome their weakness in uncertainty modeling with slight parameters increment. Extensive experiments also show that they can achieve better performance in both short and long-term predictions in H3.6M, CMU-Mocap.