# An Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models for Drought Prediction using Weather Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.02517 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.02517/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jul 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Deep learning for time series classification: a review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04356/) (2018)
- [A Transformer-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02803/) (2020)
- [InceptionTime: Finding AlexNet for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04939/) (2019)
- [Time Series Classification from Scratch with Deep Neural Networks: A Strong Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.06455/) (2016)
- [LSTM Fully Convolutional Networks for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.05206/) (2017)
- [Applications of deep learning in stock market prediction: recent progress](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01859/) (2020)
- [XCM: An Explainable Convolutional Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.04796/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Drought is a serious natural disaster that has a long duration and a wide range of influence. To decrease the drought-caused losses, drought prediction is the basis of making the corresponding drought prevention and disaster reduction measures. While this problem has been studied in the literature, it remains unknown whether drought can be precisely predicted or not with machine learning models using weather data. To answer this question, a real-world public dataset is leveraged in this study and different drought levels are predicted using the last 90 days of 18 meteorological indicators as the predictors. In a comprehensive approach, 16 machine learning models and 16 deep learning models are evaluated and compared. The results show no single model can achieve the best performance for all evaluation metrics simultaneously, which indicates the drought prediction problem is still challenging. As benchmarks for further studies, the code and results are publicly available in a Github repository.