# Hypothetical Expected Utility

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.15979 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15979/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jun 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Failures of Contingent Thinking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.07703/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper provides a model to analyze and identify a decision maker's (DM's) hypothetical reasoning. Using this model, I show that a DM's propensity to engage in hypothetical thinking is captured exactly by her ability to recognize implications (i.e., to identify that one hypothesis implies another) and that this later relation is encoded by a DM's observable behavior. Thus, this characterization both provides a concrete definition of (flawed) hypothetical reasoning and, importantly, yields a methodology to identify these judgments from standard economic data.