# Epidemic modelling of multiple virus strains: a case study of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in Moscow

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.08048 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08048/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A Modified SIR Model for the COVID-19 Contagion in Italy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.14391/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

During a long-running pandemic a pathogen can mutate, producing new strains with different epidemiological parameters. Existing approaches to epidemic modelling only consider one virus strain. We have developed a modified SEIR model to simulate multiple virus strains within the same population. As a case study, we investigate the potential effects of SARS-CoV-2 strain B.1.1.7 on the city of Moscow. Our analysis indicates a high risk of a new wave of infections in September-October 2021 with up to 35 000 daily infections at peak. We open-source our code and data.