# Revealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.04341 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04341/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jun 2021.

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices using Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13826/) (2022)
- [Understanding electricity prices beyond the merit order principle using explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04805/) (2022)
- [Glocal Explanations of Expected Goal Models in Soccer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15559/) (2023)
- [Exploring deterministic frequency deviations with explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09538/) (2021)
- [Secondary control activation analysed and predicted with explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04802/) (2021)
- [Revealing interactions between HVDC cross-area flows and frequency stability with explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.10727/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Stable operation of the electrical power system requires the power grid frequency to stay within strict operational limits. With millions of consumers and thousands of generators connected to a power grid, detailed human-build models can no longer capture the full dynamics of this complex system. Modern machine learning algorithms provide a powerful alternative for system modelling and prediction, but the intrinsic black-box character of many models impedes scientific insights and poses severe security risks. Here, we show how eXplainable AI (XAI) alleviates these problems by revealing critical dependencies and influences on the power grid frequency. We accurately predict frequency stability indicators (such as RoCoF and Nadir) for three major European synchronous areas and identify key features that determine the power grid stability. Load ramps, specific generation ramps but also prices and forecast errors are central to understand and stabilize the power grid.