# Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.05303 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05303/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 17 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 May 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [A framework for the fine-grained evaluation of the instantaneous expected value of soccer possessions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09426/) (2020)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in Ice Hockey for Context-Aware Player Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.11088/) (2018)
- [Supervised sequential pattern mining of event sequences in sport to identify important patterns of play: an application to rugby union](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.15377/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [H-VAEP and H-xT: Valuing Offensive On-the-Ball Actions in Handball by Estimating Probabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.12926/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study aimed to provide a framework to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league using 59,233 plays from 180 Super League matches via expected possession value (EPV) models. The EPV-308 split the pitch into 308 5m x 5m zones, the EPV-77 split the pitch into 77 10m x 10m zones and the EPV-19 split the pitch in 19 zones of variable size dependent on the total zone value generated during a match. Attacking possessions were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. The EPV-308 had the greatest variability and lowest reproducibility, compared to EPV-77 and EPV-19. When six previous matches were considered, the team's subsequent match attacking performances had a similar reward distribution for EPV-19, EPV-77 and EPV-308 on 95 +/- 4%, 51 +/- 12% and 0 +/- 0% of occasions. This study supports the use of EPV-19 to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league and provides a simple framework through which attacking performances can be compared between teams.