# FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.10490 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/

## Key facts

- Cited by 239 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 43 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Apr 2021.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 43)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Spatial Transformer Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02025/) (2015)
- [Multi-Task Learning Using Uncertainty to Weigh Losses for Scene Geometry and Semantics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07115/) (2017)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [Pseudo-LiDAR from Visual Depth Estimation: Bridging the Gap in 3D Object Detection for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.07179/) (2018)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Panoptic-DeepLab](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.04751/) (2019)
- [DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04394/) (2017)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [Deep Continuous Fusion for Multi-Sensor 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.10992/) (2020)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [A Survey of Motion Planning and Control Techniques for Self-driving Urban Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.07446/) (2016)
- [Stochastic Variational Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11252/) (2017)
- [Fast and Furious: Real Time End-to-End 3D Detection, Tracking and Motion Forecasting with a Single Convolutional Net](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.12395/) (2020)
- [Bayesian SegNet: Model Uncertainty in Deep Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Architectures for Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.02680/) (2015)
- [Orthographic Feature Transform for Monocular 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.08188/) (2018)
- [PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01296/) (2019)
- [Multiple Futures Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.00997/) (2019)
- [Predicting Semantic Map Representations from Images using Pyramid Occupancy Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.13402/) (2020)
- [Cross-view Semantic Segmentation for Sensing Surroundings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03560/) (2019)
- [PointFusion: Deep Sensor Fusion for 3D Bounding Box Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.10871/) (2017)
- [IntentNet: Learning to Predict Intention from Raw Sensor Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.07907/) (2021)
- [Delving Deeper into Convolutional Networks for Learning Video Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06432/) (2015)
- [Video Panoptic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11339/) (2020)
- [Rules of the Road: Predicting Driving Behavior with a Convolutional Model of Semantic Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08945/) (2019)
- [Spatially-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Relational Behavior Forecasting from Sensor Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.08233/) (2019)
- [MotionNet: Joint Perception and Motion Prediction for Autonomous Driving Based on Bird's Eye View Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06754/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 239)

- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17080/) (2023)
- [VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12077/) (2023)
- [Tri-Perspective View for Vision-Based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07817/) (2023)
- [ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07601/) (2022)
- [PETRv2: A Unified Framework for 3D Perception from Multi-Camera Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01256/) (2022)
- [Vista: A Generalizable Driving World Model with High Fidelity and Versatile Controllability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17398/) (2024)
- [Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14365/) (2023)
- [SurroundOcc: Multi-Camera 3D Occupancy Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09551/) (2023)
- [BEVFormer v2: Adapting Modern Image Backbones to Bird's-Eye-View Recognition via Perspective Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.10439/) (2022)
- [OccFormer: Dual-path Transformer for Vision-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05316/) (2023)
- [VADv2: End-to-End Vectorized Autonomous Driving via Probabilistic Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13243/) (2024)
- [OccWorld: Learning a 3D Occupancy World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16038/) (2023)
- [CoBEVT: Cooperative Bird's Eye View Semantic Segmentation with Sparse Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02202/) (2022)
- [GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11502/) (2024)
- [BEVerse: Unified Perception and Prediction in Birds-Eye-View for Vision-Centric Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09743/) (2022)
- [NEAT: Neural Attention Fields for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04456/) (2021)
- [Model-Based Imitation Learning for Urban Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07729/) (2022)
- [PolarFormer: Multi-camera 3D Object Detection with Polar Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.15398/) (2022)
- [Learning from All Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11934/) (2022)
- [SelfOcc: Self-Supervised Vision-Based 3D Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12754/) (2023)
- [Simple-BEV: What Really Matters for Multi-Sensor BEV Perception?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07959/) (2022)
- [Vision-Centric BEV Perception: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02797/) (2022)
- [VLP: Vision Language Planning for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05577/) (2024)
- [BEVSegFormer: Bird's Eye View Semantic Segmentation From Arbitrary Camera Rigs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.04050/) (2022)
- [Delving into the Devils of Bird's-eye-view Perception: A Review, Evaluation and Recipe](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.05324/) (2022)
- [ViP3D: End-to-end Visual Trajectory Prediction via 3D Agent Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01582/) (2022)
- [PanoOcc: Unified Occupancy Representation for Camera-based 3D Panoptic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10013/) (2023)
- [Copilot4D: Learning Unsupervised World Models for Autonomous Driving via Discrete Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01017/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Driving requires interacting with road agents and predicting their future behaviour in order to navigate safely. We present FIERY: a probabilistic future prediction model in bird's-eye view from monocular cameras. Our model predicts future instance segmentation and motion of dynamic agents that can be transformed into non-parametric future trajectories. Our approach combines the perception, sensor fusion and prediction components of a traditional autonomous driving stack by estimating bird's-eye-view prediction directly from surround RGB monocular camera inputs. FIERY learns to model the inherent stochastic nature of the future solely from camera driving data in an end-to-end manner, without relying on HD maps, and predicts multimodal future trajectories. We show that our model outperforms previous prediction baselines on the NuScenes and Lyft datasets. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/wayveai/fiery.